Germany in 2023 – the murky chrystal ball?

“Germany had outsourced its security
to the United States, its energy needs to Russia
and its export-led growth to China.“
Constance Stelzenmüller (here)

Even more so than in previous years, which were in some cases full of corona, a look into the chrystal ball regarding Germany’s economic development in 2023 turns into a strained poking in the fog. Too many factors can drive developments in one direction or the other. But even if 2023 turns out to be more positive than expected – moderate economic growth with easing inflation – the signs for the years thereafter are not positive. As the following post will show, in just over twenty years Germany has merely gone around in circles once – at least as far as political goal-setting and economic resilience are concerned – without solving the problems of the time in a sustainable way.

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The German economy in December 2022 – not so bad after all!?!

The war in Ukraine was still raging, but even in Germany Corona became old news as 2022 drew to a close. Hence, the hope which came up in October already as to the fate of the German economy (here) stabilised in November (here) and got even better at the end of one of the most disturbing years I personally encountered in my not so short life-span. But, hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in December 2022:

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Supply chains – not only an operational issue…

…no, since January 1, 2023, possibly also a legal one: On that day, the “German Act on Corporate Due Diligence Obligations in Supply Chains” came into force. After the pandemic years drastically demonstrated to Western industrial societies the fragility of supply chains – be it due to production losses caused by the Chinese central government’s pursuit of the so-called “no-covid strategy” (here, in German) or the blockade of the Suez Canal by the freighter “Ever Given” (here, in German) – the next tightening of supply chains is now looming, at least in Germany, this time through legal rules.

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The German economy in November 2022 – have we really seen the bottom?

The war in Ukraine is still ongoing though there wasn’t too much actual movement throughout the month – probably due to Rasputitsa (for regular updates, cf. here, in German). The hope which came up last month as to the fate of the German economy (here) seems to somewhat stabilise now albeit on a low level. So, hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in November 2022:

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It doesn’t always have to be “resilience” – a (functioning) battery is already a start

Not only since Corona, but increasingly since then and especially since Russia’s illegal attack on Ukraine, the buzzword “resilience” seems to be omnipresent. An incessant line of events, articles and entire books on this subject often leave the casual observer rather perplexed by the sheer number of steps seemingly necessary to achieve the noble goal of “resilience”. Accordingly, the following article addresses the question which aspects of this concept make sense and which are more likely some sort of consultant’s bullshit bingo.

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The German economy in October 2022 – things are never as bad as they seem, hopefully

While the war at the eastern and southern front is (not very much but still) progressing in favour of Ukraine, Russia continued its attacks on civil infrastructure unabated (for regular updates, cf. here, in German). After hope for the German economy was (thus) already in short supply in July (cf. here), everything seemed to be in dire straits in August (here) and despair was brewing in September (here), it might be that things won’t indeed turn out as bad as originally thought, at least some hope came up in the course of the month. But, hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in October 2022:

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The German economy in September 2022 – despair is brewing

While the war at the eastern and southern front is still very much progressing in favour of the Ukraine, Russia, under the leadership of Mr. Putin has – seemingly over recognising that a military victory is not feasible – startet to destroy Ukraine’s civil infrastructure (for regular updates, cf. here, in German). Hope was already in short supply in July (cf. here) and everything seemed to be in dire straits in August (here). So, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in September 2022:

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